August 15, 2022

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The benefits of stimulus and enhanced unemployment are not likely to be

The benefits of stimulus and enhanced unemployment are not likely to be

For the past quarter century, the federal government has stepped in with some kind of emergency relief when the economy has been slowing. next one


This trend is likely to break.

The Internet crash of 2001 saw the Bush administration send $300 in stimulus payments to tens of millions of families. In the midst of the 2008 financial crisis, it was

Federal Reserve

Reducing interest rates to historical lows and reviving financial markets. Then, in 2009, former President Barack Obama’s first major legislation was an $830 billion package to alleviate the worst of the Great Recession.

The response in 2020 – as the coronavirus pushed the US into a sudden shutdown – saw the Federal Reserve and Congress support the economy at lower rates, emergency lending programs, larger stimulus checks, and boosted unemployment benefits.

Now, a growing number of economists You see another deflation on the horizon, a similar degree of government assistance is unexpected — even as inflation has risen to its highest level in 41 years. That’s because a looming recession would be a recession that policymakers designed in an effort to combat inflation and its causes, making a major federal relief effort unlikely.

It’s not helped by the fact that pandemic-era stimulus has recently come under scrutiny for fueling inflation today.

“Democrats Put Politics on Party Lines Decided to Reckless Spending of Billions,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell In a speech in the hall she touched on inflation earlier this month.

Economists are slow to assign all the blame to the stimulus, citing other factors such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and tangled global supply chains. still, high inflation contracts It might be enough to dissuade even Democrats from pushing strong incentives.

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Another headwind for added comfort is the fact that Republicans are expected to reclaim at least one chamber of Congress mid-term. This would put in power a party that had already stated about avoiding new spending.

These factors come together as the US looks to a recession sometime in 2023. Economists fear that the Fed Fastest price hike in nearly three decades It will halt economic growth, freeze spending, hurt corporate revenues and lead to layoffs.

However, the low probability of more stimulus may not matter if the economy avoids a recession, or if it sees only a mild recession – expectations held by a group of prominent experts.

Goldman Sachs wrote on June 20 that there are only 30% chance The economy will slip into recession next year. JPMorgan holds a similar rosy outlook, although it sees a greater chance of a pullback over the next two years.

“There’s plenty of reason to believe it’s going to be a mild recession,” Jason Furman, former chief economist for President Barack Obama, told Insider recently. He cited the savings that many American families accumulated during the pandemic and the absence of pressures on the financial sector.