Putin He assures her that he is only trying to defend himself and asks her to give it up in writing Ukraine Will not be part of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)When he was president of the United States Joe Biden Claiming that Moscow was trying to show its strength, the Kremlin warned of “unprecedented sanctions” it would face if it infiltrated Ukrainian soil.
What is in the background and how likely is the invasion? Here we explain it:
Why is Russia interested in Ukraine?
Ukraine was now part of the crumbling Soviet Union., But when it fell, he became independent 30 years ago. However, inside Ukraine There are deep divisions between those who want to further integrate with Western Europe [en la parte oriental] To strengthen relationships with Russia.
PresidentVladimir Putin considers Ukraine a part of it Russia, And clarified when he spoke recently Ukraine Y Russia As a unit.
In February 2014, the pro-Russian president Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych was ousted after violent protests. It was in that context Russia annexes Crimea. At the same time, the Russian government is supporting pro-Russian Ukrainian rebels who have fought the Ukrainian military since the invasion. The conflict claimed more than 14,000 lives.
Despite that Putin He assures that invasion is not his intention, he has stationed about 100,000 soldiers on the border, and in recent days he has warned Russia To act, it would be “for self-defense” only.
What is Vladimir Putin afraid of?
The basic problem of the current conflict is the possibility of annexation by Ukraine OTAN, The Russian president considers “unacceptable.” Reason: Russia He feels that the alliance is expanding to the point where it threatens the very existence of the country. In addition, members of the Atlantic Alliance are governed by a slogan: an attack against one, an attack against all, and a collective response.
How Possible is an Invasion?
Putin Insists there is no plan for an attack, but at the same time threatens “military action” in retaliation for what the West considers to be an “aggression strategy.”
At his conference for the first year of government, Biden put into practice that there would be an infiltration, and according to the media, he planned to send 5,000 elements to the area in support of the allies.
The OTAN It has also increased its presence in the East, including Spain’s shipments of the Plas de Leso warship and the Midiro Minesweeper. In addition, it intends to increase its presence in the Southeast.
What would an invasion look like?
Experts believe that he can choose a small infiltrator, knowing that Putin will take a big risk by launching a full-scale invasion. At his conference, Biden went so far as to suggest that the scale of the invasion would be a response, angered Ukraine, which felt that the Kremlin would be granted free access to small operations.
Paul Adams, the BBC’s international affairs correspondent, said one action would be mixed attacks – hacking, misinformation and so on – “Europe may not have seen a full-scale invasion after World War II. In any case, civilians will be trapped in the middle of nowhere.” It is difficult to see how this could lead to many, many casualties, if one tries to establish a friendly government in Kiev. “
Why is the US interested in Ukraine?
On the one hand, according to Adams, and according to Biden, the reason is to defend the principle that “nations have the right to choose their own destiny, alliances and future path.” At the same time, it seeks to curb as much as possible the “control of Putin’s malicious influence in the West.”
What has gas got to do with conflict?
Russia has threatened to cut off supplies to Europe if sanctions are imposed on the country. However, the BBC’s Steve Rosenberg in Moscow said, “The EU is dependent on Russia for 40% of its gas, so no cuts. Russia This will greatly affect Europe. Although this cut will affect the Russians as well, one possibility that Rosenberg considers possible due to the income issue is that they are focusing on the Chinese market.
The North Stream 2 deal, the gas pipeline connection from Russia to Germany has already been completed, but has not yet carried the gas, and this has become a factor in the negotiations. Germany has threatened to suspend the deal if Russia launches its offensive.
Can Europe and the United States stop Russia?
To us Threatens such sanctions as not found Russia, He warned that he would face “catastrophe” if he acted, making it clear that he would not send war troops. But the country has failed to show the expected unity with the Europeans, who are wondering how they can retaliate for Russia’s invasion. Even during the conversations to prevent the conflict from escalating, the French Europeans and The OTAN Conversation with Russia Except for the United States.
Member States of OTAN They have warned that the open door policy will not allow anyone to “tie their hands”.
In addition to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, an economic tool that Europeans own is the Swift payment system, from which they can disconnect the Russian banking system. Although so far it has been treated as a “high resource”, countries like Latvia have not ruled out the possibility of trying to send a strong message to Moscow.
Does anyone win in this conflict?
Despite the losses and damage on all sides, Russia will manage to make a splash and show muscle.
Picture பிடன் Inside To us It may come as a shock if things do not go as planned, and Republicans will not hesitate to use anything to attack their “weakness”, especially before the midterm elections in November.
“Putin is a force to be reckoned with. He fabricates the crisis that anyone can succeed no matter what. Threats and promises are basically the same thing. Putin could re-occupy Ukraine or leave where he is and integrate territory effectively controlled by Russia into Crimea and the Donbass. It could cause problems in Japan and send hypersonic missiles to Cuba and Venezuela, or not if things go well in Europe. “ Fiona Hill, a colleague at the Brookings Institution and a former national intelligence official in Russia and Eurasia, wrote in an article for The New York Times that “America is where Putin wants to be.”
In which he stated Putin It is a long-term strategic game and “he knows how to win … the United States is where he wants to be. Their positions and threats have set the agenda in European security debates and attracted our full attention. Unlike President Biden, Putin’s by-elections or his own party or opposition No need to worry about rejection.
A Putin He doesn’t care about bad press or bad ratings in the poll. He is not part of a political party and has crushed the Russian opposition. The Kremlin has largely silenced local independent newspapers. Putin is preparing for re-election in 2024, but his only potential rival, Alexei Navalny, is being held in a penitentiary outside Moscow. “
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