Elections were held on November 21 last year by order of the Supreme Court (TSJ), which annulled the results of the vote by less than one percent of the votes cast by the then opposition candidate, Freddie Superlano. Re-election, Argentine Chavez, brother of the late President Hugo Chavez.
TSJ’s decision was based on the disqualification order issued by the Office of the Controller General of the Republic against Superlano. Spontaneity and Savismo’s attempt to cling to power In Parinas.
This opinion was supported because the disqualification against Superlano was not reported to the National Electoral Council (CNE) before the election, and was reinforced by the unexpected disqualification of his wife, Aurora Silva, from running for Superlano. And Julio Caesar Reyes, former deputy to the National Assembly.
This is how the opposition Democratic Unity Schedule (MUD) candidate ended up Sergio Carrido, An opposition legislator elected to Parinas’ legislature, defeated Savista candidate George Areza. Former son of Hugo Chavez He has held senior positions since 2011, including Executive Vice President and Minister of Foreign Affairs.
This second victory of the opposition in Barinas and the manner in which the campaign was formed leave some lessons for both Chavismo and the opposition.
1. The electoral path of hope
Since the failed recall in 2004, there have been hopeless opposition parties on the electoral path.
These reluctances have been reinforced in recent years by the judicial siege imposed by the Supreme Court on the National Assembly with an opposition majority elected in 2015.
And obstacles to an attempt to recall President Nicolas Maduro in 2016; For complaints from Smartmatic Company “Inflated” results announced by Savismo In the 2017 National Constituent Assembly election; As well as through several gestures – such as the presidential election in December of that year advancing to May 2018 – read from the opposition as arbitrary actions taken in support of the executive.
In this context, for many opponents, the message sent by the institutions controlled by Savismo became clear: the so-called Bolivarian Revolution could not be defeated in the election, and if they won, those victories would be empty in content and meaning. .
However, the biggest breakthrough historically made by the Venezuelan opposition against Chavismo was the election, which won the 2015 legislative elections and won a super majority in the National Assembly.
Moreover, Venezuela has a deeply rooted voting culture and prefers citizens to be invited to vote. More than 52% turnout figures in this Sunday’s electionIt is 6 percentage points higher than November 21st.
According to a Twitter message, Luis Vicente Leon, head of the Tatalysis polling station, said: It is not worthy of populism, official mobilization, military displacement, institutional control or brutal attacks on those who want to vote. More than half the votes of the people of Barcelona killed many birds with one stone.
2. The united opposition goes further
Another lesson that this Sunday’s election left for the Venezuelan opposition is that when the parties involved make it work together, they can achieve the best possible results.
In this case in Barinas, various political forces of the opposition were involved in the state in support of Carito’s candidacy and inducing voters to participate.
This was done even by some of the leaders who were in favor of abstaining from voting in the November 21 elections.
In those elections, the opposition forces were very divided over who to vote for and which candidates to support.
Chavismo was able to win as a result of this division 20 of the 24 governors and more than 200 of the 322 mayors, Was able to add more than half of the valid votes in only five states.
Elias Soek, mayor of Baruda, Caracas, pointed out the difference between the two campaigns.
“If we were in the opposition, we would have done in the whole country what we did in Parinas (union, massive participation, securing votes), today we have more than 15 governorships and more than 200 mayoral offices. Let’s learn!” Shoaik wrote in a Twitter message.
3. Risks of misuse of corporate power
Opposition parties have stated they will not run in the by-elections in Paris on November 21. Abuse of corporate power That Savismo holds.
The move was seen as an arbitrary attempt by opposition voters to snatch the victory they believed they deserved, becoming an incentive to mobilize more voters in the run-up to the Jan. 9 election, and to make it easier for Carrido to gain some. 70,000 more votes than the previous candidate In the MUD, Freddie Superlano.
What this means is that despite the fact that this Sunday PSUV candidate George Areza surpassed the results reached by Argentine Chavez by about 25,000 votes, his results were relatively bad because the Opposition’s advantage was less than 1%. 14%
4. Mass participation is important
George Areza’s decision to admit his defeat before the CNE renders its first results This is an unusual gesture In the context of the Venezuelan election over the past two decades.
Pre-election polls were looking for victory for the opposition, but the expectation of large sections of the opposition – especially after it happened in November – was that it would cost Chavismo a lot to recognize another defeat in Parinas.
Several analysts in the opposition ranks have attributed the end to Arresa The higher turnout gave the opposition candidate a wider advantage, Which reduced Savismo’s organizational margin for maneuver.
However, this gesture, which greatly reduced political pressure in the face of the Election Commission’s long silence, favored Areza, putting it in a favorable light in the eyes of a section of the electorate who could see him. His attitude is a certain mood Fair gamePolarized is very rare in Venezuelan politics.
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