September 19 is a date marked by tragedy Mexico. First, an 8.1-magnitude earthquake in 1985 severely damaged hundreds of buildings in the capital and killed thousands. Later in 2017, a 7.1-magnitude earthquake killed at least 369 people and damaged thousands of homes. This Monday, a 7.7-magnitude earthquake hit the country again, causing two deaths and minor property damage. Why was there such a strong tremor in Mexico on September 19 in 37 years? Is there a scientific explanation for it?
Tuesday’s earthquake was its epicenter Michogan And it was recorded an hour after a general earthquake drill was carried out in the country.
This coincidence in dates makes many Mexicans wonder if there is some event that makes September the month of major earthquakes.
Scientists have come out against this widespread belief Mexico It should be emphasized that It’s just a coincidence.
After moving on Monday, Luis Quintanar RoblesResearcher at Institute of Geophysics of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM)That said, from a strictly technical point of view It is not certain that the earthquake will occur in one day.
“There is no certainty that earthquakes will occur on the same day, the probability is very low. From what we can tell, earthquakes are usually triggered when stress is released in the surrounding area. For example, assuming a 5-magnitude earthquake struck the Guerrero region of Petatlon on September 14, it may have released some effort to facilitate movement between tectonic plates and trigger this earthquake.highlighted Quintanar Robles.
In a press conference held on campus National Seismic Service (SSN)Quintanar pointed out that Monday’s earthquake struck somewhere near the site September 19, 1985 An 8.1 magnitude earthquake occurred.
when Víctor Hugo Espíndola Castro, a researcher at the SSN Seismic Data Analysis and Interpretation Group, admitted that the occurrence of three large earthquakes on the same date was an unfortunate coincidence. The probability of that happening was slim. “Like winning the lottery three times in a row or every four years“, he said.
The medium of Mexico UNAM revealed the probability measure attributed to the physicist Jose Luis Mateos, The probability of three major earthquakes occurring on the same day is 133,225, expressed as a percentage of 0.000751%.
But why do people believe that September is the month of major earthquakes in Mexico?
“That’s a valid point.”The seismologist said Louis Quintana. “This is a logical concept about people, because we are used to measuring natural phenomena on the scale of human life, which is not always the most appropriate perspective … to measure their frequency, their intensity, as it should be. On a geographic scaleNot on the human life scale of 60, 70 years, but on the somewhat larger scale of 100, 200 or more years”.
When does Mexico shake the most?
According to a report by BBC Mundo, based on SSN statistics, since Mexico has seismic records dating back to 1900, 87 major earthquakes With a scale greater than 7.0.
Register a bandage Between 12 earthquakes September and December Over the last 121 years. when June He’s not far behind with 10 strong moves.
In conclusion, those three months accumulate the greatest seismic activity Mexico.
“If we look at the entire seismic catalog that we have since the early 1900s, we see a recurrence of more than 7 earthquakes in different months, for example, we see several in December and several in other months. Of course the probability of happening on the same day is very low.”Comprehensive Louis Quintana.
Can earthquakes be predicted?
In the past, UNAM scientists assured that earthquakes and large earthquakes are unpredictable, but they continue to occur: “When, where, to what extent, we don’t know, but they will continue, and we have seen it in these weeks”Miguel Angel Santoyo, a seismologist at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, said weeks after a 7.1-magnitude earthquake hit in 2017.
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