€
The euro depreciated modestly vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4015 level and was capped around the $1.4195 level.  Data released in the U.S. today saw June durable goods orders decline 2.5%, a sharp swing downward from the +1.8% prior release and the expected -0.6% print.  The ex-transportation component, in contrast, notched growth of 1.1%, up from the revised 0.8% print in May and above the 0.0% forecast.  Additionally, MBA mortgage applications were off 6.3% last week, down from the +2.8% print the prior week.  Traders await the Federal Reserve’s July Beige Book later in the North American session for any clues about how the Fed will unwind its massive monetary stimuli.  In eurozone news, the European Central Bank’s quarterly lending survey reported banks continued to tighten credit conditions in the second quarter, albeit at a lesser rate than in previous quarters.  German provisional July consumer price inflation data were released that indicated many German states saw negative inflation growth in July.  This will likely prod the ECB into continuing its generous liquidity provision for the next couple of quarters. Specifically, it was reported CPI was likely to have fallen year-over-year for the first time in more than twenty years.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.
¥/ CNY
The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥95.10 level and was supported around the ¥94.00 figure.  Data released in Japan today saw June retail sales off 3% y/y.   There is significant talk that Japanese investors will be repatriating proceeds from Eurobond redemptions and this is weighing heavily on some of the crosses.  Data released in Japan today saw June retail sales decline 3% y/y.  Most traders believe Bank of Japan will begin to gradually unwind its considerable monetary stimuli by the end of the year when some of its emergency lending and liquidity provision programs begin to mature.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.26% to close at ¥10,113.24.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥132.75 level and was capped around the ¥134.40 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥156.30 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥87.10 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar lost ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8285 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8315. 


SCHEDULE


Wednesday, 29 July 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

N/A    NZ        July NBNZ business confidence (5.5)
N/A    Germany    July consumer price index (0.4% m/m)
N/A    Germany    July consumer price index (0.1% y/y)
N/A    Germany    July CPI, harmonized (0.4% m/m)
N/A    Germany    July CPI, harmonized (0.0% y/y)
0500    Japan        July small business confidence (38)
0645    France        June producer prices (-0.3% m/m)
0645    France        June producer prices (-7.8% y/y)
0730    Italy        July business confidence (69.3)
0830    UK        June mortgage approvals (43,400)
0830    UK        June net consumer credit (₤300 million)
0830    UK        June net lending secured on dwellings (₤300 million)
0830    UK        June M4 money supply (14.2%)
1100    US        MBA mortgage applications (2.8%)
1230    US        June durable goods orders (1.8%0
1230    US        June durable goods, ex-transportation (1.1%)
1800    US        Federal Reserve Beige Book
2100    NZ        Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision
2350    Japan        June industrial production (5.7% m/m)
2350    Japan        June industrial production (-29.5% y/y)

Thursday, 30 July 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0100    Australia    June HIA new home sales (-5.7% m/m)
0130    Australia    June building approvals (-12.5% m/m)
0130    Australia    June building approvals (-22.4% y/y)
0130    Japan        Bank of Japan Policy Board member Noda speaks
0300    NZ        June M3 money supply (5.6% y/y)
0755    Germany    July unemployment change (31,000)
0755    Germany    July unemployment rate (8.3%)
0800    Italy        June hourly wages (0.0% m/m)
0800    Italy        June hourly wages (3.0% y/y)
0800    France        July PMI, retail (49.4)
0800    Germany    July PMI, retail (46)
0800    Eurozone    July PMI, retail (47.5)
0900    Eurozone    July economic confidence (73.3)
0900    Eurozone    July business climate indicator (-2.97)
0900    Eurozone    July consumer confidence (-25)
0900    Eurozone    July industrial confidence (-32)
0900    Eurozone    July services confidence (-20)
1230    US        Weekly initial jobless claims
1230    US        Continuing jobless claims
1230    Canada        June industrial product prices (-1.10% m/m)
1230    Canada        June raw materials price index (2.20% m/m)
2301    UK        July GfK consumer confidence (-25)
2330    Japan        June jobless rate (5.20%)
2330    Japan        June household spending (0.30% y/y)
2330    Japan        July Tokyo-area consumer price index (-1.50% y/y)
2330    Japan        July Tokyo-area CPI, ex-food, energy (-1.00% y/y)
2330    Japan        June national consumer price index (-1.10% y/y)
2330    Japan        June national CPI, ex-food, energy (-0.50% y/y)

Friday, 31 July 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0030    Australia    July TD Securities inflation (0.40% m/m)
0030    Australia    July TD Securities inflation (1.40% y/y)
0130    Australia    June private sector credit growth (-0.10% m/m)
0130    Australia    June private sector credit growth (3.90% y/y)
0315    Japan        July PMI, manufacturing (48.2)
0500    Japan        June housing starts (-30.80% y/y)
0500    Japan        June annualized housing starts (758,000)
0500    Japan        June construction orders (-41.90% y/y)
0900    Italy        June producer price index
0900    Eurozone    July consumer price index, estimate (-0.10% y/y)
0900    Eurozone    June unemployment rate (9.50%)
0930    CH        July KOF leading indicator (-1.65)
1230    US        Q2 gross domestic product, annualized (-5.50%)
1230    US        Q2 personal consumption expenditure, core (1.60% q/q)
1230    US        Q2 gross domestic product price index (2.80%)
1230    Canada        May gross domestic product (-0.10% m/m)
1345    US        July Chicago Purchasing Manager Index (39.9)




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